Germany has no alternative to Merkel ?

German Chancellor continues imperturbable on the same path, in the certainty that her party, the CDU, can be missed in any coalition government. “Wir purchase Badger” will long continue her motto.
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By: Ton Nijhuis director of the Institute for German Studies at the University of Amsterdam July 30, 2016, 02:00
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Angela Merkel leaves make themselves crazy fast. She’s different from many other politicians in Europe that the hot breath of populist parties feels their neck, do not tend to talk the voter to the mouth. And they will not get away from earlier statements or decisions. “With the intention of now, it might be …” are words that are not spent on Merkel.

Even fewer emotions

Almost or even deliberately provocative she repeated the Sommer-Pressekonferenz the words “Wir abolish tie. Of possible erroneous assessments would they know nothing. She is so impassive it blurs the line between perseverance and obstinacy.
And just now become such high emotions in the country, she has apparently decided to show less emotion than usual. “I feel responsible and to act correctly – and no other feelings. This is Angela Merkel at the summit: the analytical, discursive, pragmatic politician. She wrapped her indeed high moral refugees politics in bureaucratic jargon.

“You know me.’

It’s not just after four attacks on the refugee issue, but also feelings of insecurity and Islamic terrorism
This sober and austere style Merkel has always been very confident. “Ihr Kenny Mir” was its slogan in the election campaign. You know me, I do not do foolish things, and the board is with me in good hands. You can go to sleep peacefully.

However, it is questionable whether this approach will still work. Many felt the decision to open the borders so generously brush. That the refugees virtually came to a halt, perhaps it was not so much the result of German politics as of the close of the Balkan route.

Moreover, not only going after the four attacks on the refugee issue but also feelings of insecurity and Islamic terrorism. What is exactly the message conveyed is when the words “Wir purchase das’ explicitly repeat?
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Feel good chancellor

The question is whether the style of Merkel who has made her so popular in good times will also work in dangerous times
Regarding terrorism, I can imagine little at these words. Merkel was pretty much throughout her chancellorship a feel good chancellor. The painful reforms in social security were taken by her predecessor Schröder and when she came to power, with Germany was economically getting better, apart from a brief dip in the financial crisis. All the problems seemed to make over a wide berth to Germany. That was true even for terrorist attacks. Unlike France, Germany has no large groups of Arabic-speaking people in North Africa from which most terrorists originated.

However, the attacks of recent weeks to attend brutally disrupted this feeling of being in a relatively safe country. The question is whether the style of Merkel who has made her so popular in good times will also work in dangerous times.

Its position is not in danger. After opening the borders to refugees, its popularity decreased significantly and also lost the CDU in the polls. But after the past six months the flow of refugees dried up, its popularity rose again to levels which other European leaders do not even dare to dream.

CDU’s dominance

Because the AfD and also Linke can be forged not a coalition, a government without the CDU unthinkable

The reverse movement we saw at the right-wing populist AfD. For the refugee crisis seemed to be the end of the party nearby. After a fierce internal struggle was the party in the polls back to 3 percent, which is below the threshold. The refugee crisis proved to be the lifeline for the AfD. In the wake of the party rose to well over 10 percent. But just the past few months the party slumped in the polls is clear. It is expected that the supporters will increase again by the attacks, but a real threat to the AfD is not for the CDU. Rather it is the SPD that has to worry. In the state elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern threatens the party, which is in the polls to a loss of nearly 15 percent, slipping a bit unlucky to third place. This means that in all probability this will provide the prime minister the CDU.

The paradoxical situation arises that if the AfD comes in the Bundestag and the CDU-CSU lose a few percent of voters on the right, the dominant position of the CDU is just stronger at. Because the AfD and also with the Left Party no coalition can be forged, is a government without the CDU unthinkable. And that means that the CDU in the coming period will continue to supply the chancellor.

Candidacy

The CSU is a regional Bavarian party, which may have a significant impact on the alliance with the CDU in national politics
Within the party, Angela Merkel still has to worry about competition. It even lacks a credible successor. For the CSU Merkel need not fear. The criticism of Seehofer of Merkel’s politics is often hard. Harder than the opposition. But when the push comes to the shove, the CSU, the CDU will not drop. The reason for this is simple. The CSU is a regional Bavarian party, which may have a significant impact on the alliance with the CDU in national politics.

Angela Merkel said at the press conference that this was not the time to talk next year about her possible candidacy for a new chancellorship. As the daughter of a minister who has so linked to the refugee’s politics her name, she will not retire now located. Not before she can say she has this. Therefore, it will be Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor after the elections in September 2017.

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